Hot Tub Sleeper Picks Top 165 Player Rankings*

Below you’ll find the top players ranked by us for the 2010 Fantasy Football Season. Sure, some choices might cause you to pause and scratch your head, but if you’re like us you’ll read and reread a dozen or so of these lists before your draft season begins. 

Without further adieu, or with zero adieu since we’ve never had a player ranking before, we give you our idea of who is and isn’t worth crap this season. Good Luck! 

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC

2. Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

3. Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

4. Ray Rice, RB, BAL

5. Andre Johnson, WR, HOU

6. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB

7. Michael Turner, RB, ATL

8. Frank Gore, RB, SF

9. Steven Jackson, RB, STL

10. Drew Brees, QB, NO

11. Randy Moss, WR, NE

12. Miles Austin, WR, DAL

13. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ

14. Reggie Wayne, WR, IND

15. Peyton Manning, QB, IND

16. Ryan Matthews, RB, SD

17. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR

18. Shonn Green, RB, NYJ

19. Cedric Benson, RB, CIN

20. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT

21. Ryan Grant, RB, GB

22. Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

23. Tom Brady, QB, NE

24. Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA

25. Greg Jennings, WR, GB

26. Roddy White, WR, ATL

27. Marques Colston, WR, NO

28. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO

29. Jamal Charles, RB, KC

30. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

31. Phillip Rivers, QB, SD

32. Beanie Wells, RB, ARZ

33. LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI

34. Tony Romo, QB, DAL

35. Matt Schaub, QB, HOU

36. Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA

37. Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN

38. Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL

39. Joseph Addai, RB, IND

40. Percy Harvin, WR, MIN

41. Steve Smith, WR, CAR

42. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF

43. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC

44. Arian Foster, RB, HOU

45. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG

46. Matt Forte, RB, CHI

47. Javid Best, RB, DET

48. Steve Smith, WR, NYG

49. Dallas Clark, TE, IND

50. Antonio Gates, TE, SD

51. Jason Whitten, TE, DAL

52. Jermichael Finley, TE, GB

53. Vernon Davis, TE, SF

54. Pierre Garcon, WR, IND

55. Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG

56. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF

57. Ricky Williams, RB, MIA

58. Felix Jones, RB, DAL

59. Reggie Bush, RB, NO

60. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

61. Brent Celek, TE, PHI

62. Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL

63. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG

64. Justin Forsett, RB, SEA

65. Devin Armashodu, WR, CHI

66. Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ

41. Steve Smith, WR, CAR

42. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF

43. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC

44. Arian Foster, RB, HOU

45. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG

46. Matt Forte, RB, CHI

47. Javid Best, RB, DET

48. Steve Smith, WR, NYG

49. Dallas Clark, TE, IND

50. Antonio Gates, TE, SD

51. Jason Whitten, TE, DAL

52. Jermichael Finley, TE, GB

53. Vernon Davis, TE, SF

54. Pierre Garcon, WR, IND

55. Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG

56. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF

57. Ricky Williams, RB, MIA

58. Felix Jones, RB, DAL

59. Reggie Bush, RB, NO

60. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

61. Brent Celek, TE, PHI

62. Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL

63. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG

64. Justin Forsett, RB, SEA

65. Devin Armashodu, WR, CHI

66. Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ

67. Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE

68. Steve Breaston, WR, ARZ

69. Donald Driver, WR, GB

70. Hines Ward, WR, PIT

71. Terrell Owens, WR, CIN

72. Owen Daniels, TE, HOU

73. Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ

74. Robert Meachem, WR, NO

75. Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI

76. Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI

77. Kellen Winslow, TE, TB

78. Malcolm Floyd, WR, SD

79. Marion Barber, RB, DAL

80. Darren Sproles, RB, SD

81. Lee Evans, WR, BUF

82. Kenny Britt, WR, TEN

83. Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN

84. Jay Cutler, QB, CHI

85. Joe Flacco, QB, BAL

86. Clinton Portis, RB, WAS

87. Eli Manning, QB, NYG

88. Cadillac Williams, RB, TB

89. Mike Wallace, WR, PIT

90. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT

91. Brett Favre. QB, MIN

92. Donald Brown, RB, IND

93. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA

94. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL

95. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

96. Steve Slaton, RB, HOU

97. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL

98. Santana Moss, WR, WAS

99. Fred Jackson, RB, BUF

100. Chris Cooley, TE, WAS

101. Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE

102. Tim Hightower, RB, ARZ

103. Chaz Schillens, WR, OAK

104. Louis Murphy, WR, OAK

105. Johnny Knox, WR, CHI

106. Thomas Jones, RB, KC

107. LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ

108. Julian Edelman, WR, NE

109. Michael Bush, RB, OAK

110. JETS DEFENSE

111. Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN

112. Correll Buckhalter, RB, DEN

113. Chester Taylor, RB, CHI

114. Laurence Maroney, RB, NE

115. Derrick Mason, WR, BAL

116. Sidney Rice, WR, MIN

117. RAVENS DEFENSE

118. Mike Williams, WR, TB

119. Zach Miller, TE, OAK

120. Vince Young, QB, TEN

121. Chad Henne, QB, MIA

122. Josh Morgan, WR, SF

123. Vincent Jackson, WR, SD

124. Matthew Stafford, QB, DET

125. Willis McGahee, RB, BAL

126. Eddie Royal, WR, DEN

127. Greg Olsen, TE, CHI

128. COWBOYS DEFENSE

129. Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU

130. Austin Collie, WR, IND

131. Heath Miller, TE, PIT

132. Golden Tate, WR, SEA

133. Mario Manningham, WR, NYG

134. Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ

135. Leon Washington, RB, SEA

136. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR,CLE

137. Derrick Ward, RB, TB

138. John Carlson, TE, SEA

139. Kyle Orton, QB, DEN

140. EAGLES DEFENSE

141. Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ

142. Early Doucet, WR, ARI

143. VIKINGS DEFENSE

144. Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN

145. Tashard Choice, RB, DAL

146. Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN

147. 49ERS DEFENSE

148. Bernard Scott, RB, CIN

149. Kevin Boss, TE, NYG

150. STEELERS DEFENSE

151. Jonathon Dwyer, RB, PIT

152. PACKERS DEFENSE

153. Dexter McCluster, WR, KC

154. Chris Chambers, WR, KC

155. Carson Palmer, QB, Cin

156. Kevin Smith, RB, DET

157. Josh Cribbs, WR, CLE 

159. Jason Campbell, QB, OAK

160. Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA

161. Josh Freeman, QB, TB

162. BENGALS DEFENSE

163. Jeremy Shockley, TE, NO

164. James Starks, RB, GB

165. Max Hall, QB, ARI

*Why 165? Why not!

COLLATERAL DAMAGE - Jeremy Dayton

 “Ru-un.  Go!  Get to the chopper!”

Classic Schwarzenegger line, (and one I love to quote… often), but not from the movie I’ll allude to in this article.

Nope, it was a little-remembered 2002 film called Collateral Damage.  In typical Arnold fashion, he takes on an entire terrorist network and brings them down, one witty one-liner at a time.  It’s the idea behind the premise that I’ll relate to fantasy football, however.  “Collateral damage” is defined as the unintended or incidental damage outside of the intended outcome of an event.  I’m going to twist that definition in my favor, and say that it’s more of a collateral effect, rather than damage, as it doesn’t have to be negative unintended effects.  Besides, it allowed me to start this article with an Ah-nold reference.

Okay, it’s a bit of a stretch I know, but bear with me.   Every year in fantasy football guys come out of the woodwork to become regular starters, and even become studs who can carry a team to a fantasy championship.  Many times, these guys are completely off of anyone’s radar.  Often times, they are forgotten veterans, or overlooked young players who never got a chance to succeed for one reason or another.
  
Last year, after Roy Williams suffered an injury, a 2006 undrafted free agent received his first career start on October 11, 2009.  Ten catches, 250 yards, and two touchdowns later.... well, I think we all know who Miles Austin is now.  He went on to be the leading receiver in the league from that point on.

If Roy Williams never sits out due to injury, does that explosion ever happen?  There are some, such as my colleague Matt Peek, who have been high on him for years now, reciting how he was a Bill Parcells protégé and how it was only a matter of time before he had his chance.  However, his rise was still sudden and explosive (no pun intended), and clearly a collateral effect of the Williams injury.

He wasn’t alone either.

One of my favorite sleeper picks going into this year was given his opportunity when injuries and ineffectiveness struck those in front of him.  Justin Forsett was sitting third on the depth chart to begin last season.  Julius Jones and Edgerrin James were both listed on the depth chart ahead of him.  By season’s end, Jones was ineffective, James was released, and Forsett was powering fantasy teams into the playoffs!

This year, it appeared Pete Carroll’s arrival and subsequent signing of LenDale White was going to put Forsett behind the eight ball once again.  Carroll wised up and released White, effectively giving the third-year player out of Cal the starting job.  He does have competition coming from Leon Washington, whose recovering from a multi-fractured leg last year, but should be assured his share of touches regardless, and will be a goldmine if Washington’s leg doesn’t hold up.  While this collateral effect happened early on, and will be noticed by many before their fantasy drafts, there are many that will occur sudden and late, and you need to be ready for them if you’re going to be the proud owner of the next diamond in the rough.

There are a handful of guys I am looking at right now, who are either in the position to explode, or may soon be in the position to do so... IF certain events unfold.

One guy you should be watching closely is Chargers wide receiver Legedu Naanee.  The guy is a physical specimen, but it goes beyond that.  He rarely drops a ball, and has all the tools to be a deep threat if the opportunity continues to present itself.  This is all the collateral effect of Vincent Jackson and his contract holdout.  Barring a miracle, Jackson won’t be playing for the Chargers until mid-October, and that’s being optimistic, with his suspension on top of his holdout.  This is plenty of time for Naanee to make an impression.  He already has good chemistry with Phillip Rivers, catching 25 of 29 passes thrown his way last season, and appears ready to seize the moment right now.  While everyone is hyping Malcom Floyd as the beneficiary of Jackson’s holdout, don’t forget about him, and don’t hesitate to grab in the later rounds of your draft.

In Baltimore, all the Superbowl expectations are being tempered by the rash of injuries hitting the secondary line of their defense.  As a result, speculation abounds that the team is shopping Willis McGahee and Mark Clayton, among others, to find a starting cornerback.  Denver is a possible suitor, since a veteran running back and/or receiver is surely on their wish list.  So who would a trade like this benefit the most?

Two seasons ago, LeRon McClain burst onto the season as a fullback who received about an equal split at the running back position.  It resulted in 902 rushing yards to go along with ten touchdowns, and a Pro-bowl berth.   Last season, he was stuck in neutral as Ray Rice had a coming-out party, and McGahee stole the second show.   There’s been a clamoring for McClain to get more carries this year from fans and local pundits alike. They very well may get their wish if a trade happens.  Keeps tabs on this situation throughout the rest of summer and regular season, and be ready to draft or pick up accordingly.  They want Rice healthy, so a McGahee departure opens the door for another fantasy outburst by McClain.

Another backfield hoping to see some improvement this season was that of the Houston Texans.  They suffered a blow in their first preseason game as rookie running back Ben Tate went down with a serious ankle injury.  Suddenly another undrafted free agent from 2009, Arian Foster, is back in the starting role, which he occupied for the final two games last season.   Foster’s main challenger is now Steve Slaton, who showed he still can’t be trusted near the goal line with a fumble inside the five against the Cardinals in the same preseason opener.   Foster is an extremely powerful runner whose major flaw is his ball security.  If he fixes that, and with a dynamic offense around him, I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up top ten numbers.  

There is another side to it as well.

In Arizona, many feel Larry Fitzgerald has benefited from the presence of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin.  While I still feel Fitz will be a top 5 wide receiver this season, I don’t feel he’s a first round pick anymore.  The collateral effect of losing those two players around him could take a toll on his effectiveness.   While Steve Breaston and Early Doucet were impressive at times last season, can they be consistent?  Can Matt Leinart or Derreck Anderson step up and continue what Warner started?   The collateral effects may not be felt until we see it play out for a few weeks.  Until then, it’s a lot of risk versus reward.

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have both shown they can put up some numbers when given the chance, but are also always an injury risk.   If either or both guys go down, Danny Ware and Andre Brown are guys to watch in New York.  The Giants have weapons outside, but after a career high in pass attempts for Eli Manning last season, expect the Giants to run more often, regardless of who’s in the backfield.
Those are a few situations I’m watching this summer, but there are many others.  The key to being successful in your fantasy draft, is to pay attention EVERY DAY to what’s happening in camps and preseason games.  You have to watch more than just your favorite team play.  Visit other cities’ newspapers online and you’ll be amazed at what information you can find.

Collateral damage occurs every day, and it might not even be obvious at first.  If a big name gets traded to Team A, that’s where the focus will be.  Meanwhile, the sleepers lie on Team B, in that collateral black hole where diamonds emerge from the rough and are finally given a chance to showcase their skills.  

Here are a few other players who, while well known, are still in foggy situations, and where their value lies has yet to be determined:

- In Buffalo, injuries to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch have CJ Spiller’s value topping off.   I’d probably let him pass me by, but even with that atrocious offensive line, he could be a solid pickup after round five.
- Julian Edelman should expand upon his impressive rookie season, with or without Wes Welker in the mix.   He’s definitely a guy to watch and grab in later rounds of your draft.
- Montario Hardesty in Cleveland could be a collateral effect of the front office change.  Holmgren and company will want to go with their guy (they drafted him in the 2nd round) over Jerome Harrison, and he hasn’t disappointed yet.   An easrly pre-season injury has Harrison in front right now, but things change fast in the NFL, so keep tabs.
- Joe Flacco’s numbers could be effected the same way McClain’s might be.  The Ravens secondary problems could lead to quite a few high-scoring games, only adding to his potential given his new arsenal of weapons.  I’d have no problem waiting on him come draft day if I don’t get one of the top guys.

I’ll save a few observations as well, since this is the first article of the year I’ve written.  You’ll just have to keep coming back for more!

On another note, just as collateral damage happens with the players you are going after in your fantasy draft, they also happen WITHIN your fantasy draft.

Be ready to roll with the punches when some idiot wearing a Giants jersey shouts out Eli Manning’s name in the first round.  Okay, that may be a bit extreme (though not unheard of) but reaches happen in every draft, and if you’ve got your tunnel vision goggles on as to who your next pick will be based on who you expect to be there, you may miss an opportunity to grab a value pick much later than should reasonably be allowed.

This goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway because it’s that important: Pay attention during your draft when it’s not your pick!  The collateral effects of a tight end going in the second round could reap huge rewards if you’re ready for it.

Until your Draft Day arrives though, be diligent in your research, and know what moves are going down, and how they can affect guys on and off your radar.  The benefit of knowing collateral effects across the league could and most likely will be the difference between winning your fantasy league, and missing the playoffs.
Just ask owners of Miles Austin last year.

And to quote Ah-nold again, “I’ll be back.”

Welcome to Season Two!

Welcome to Hot Tub Sleeper Picks version 2.0!

We’ve thought long and hard about this and decided that you, our loyal and incredibly attractive readers, might actually want to know a little bit about us and why we’ve scoured all of Los Angeles for beautiful, football-fanatic women to sit in our hot tub to talk fantasy.... football.

It all starts with the realization that most talking heads in sports are fairly uninteresting and unattractive men.

When we were watching the NFL Network’s 2008 fantasy football preseason show none of us could stop staring at Rich Eisen’s hairline as it actually receded over the course of that hour-long show. Mix in the fact that they weren’t relaying a single bit of useful knowledge, as fantasy “insiders” or “experts” rarely do  - and suddenly a pearl began to form.

After much discussion we settled on the hot tub, the beautiful girls that actually know football, and sleeper picks (because that’s what has won us a string of money leagues over the years).

So what is a sleeper pick?

Really? Come on, you’re kidding… If you don’t know this than Thank God you found this site.

Sleeper picks are the under-the-radar guys filling out every NFL roster. They are the guys that impress enough in preseason to beat out that stud who rushed for 1400 yards 5 years ago but still have to play special teams until your first round pick gets banged up.

They are the guys you’ll be fighting for waiver priority each week to grab. They are the guys that, unless you are blessed by Paul Brown’s ghost, you’ll need to win the money and the trophy in your fantasy football league. Stick with us… we’ll shine the light on ‘em for you.

Now, why watch us?

Well, we are good, damn good!  Look back at last season and check out our track record. Seriously, Louis Murphy in week one? Yep!

We won’t always be right. But we’ll always be pretty and fun. That, and the willingness to admit just how wrong we were should be enough.

So, thank you for stopping by and reading… and, hopefully, watching. The 2010 season should be a blast. Good luck in kicking everyone in your league’s ass!

SEASON 2 Teaser

It's about to get steamy!! More teasers are on their way as we get closer to the 2010 NFL season!

Don't forget to follow us on Twitter @hottubpicks and stay tuned for our brand-spankin' new website coming soon!