“Ru-un. Go! Get to the chopper!”
Classic Schwarzenegger line, (and one I love to quote… often), but not from the movie I’ll allude to in this article.
Nope, it was a little-remembered 2002 film called Collateral Damage. In typical Arnold fashion, he takes on an entire terrorist network and brings them down, one witty one-liner at a time. It’s the idea behind the premise that I’ll relate to fantasy football, however. “Collateral damage” is defined as the unintended or incidental damage outside of the intended outcome of an event. I’m going to twist that definition in my favor, and say that it’s more of a collateral effect, rather than damage, as it doesn’t have to be negative unintended effects. Besides, it allowed me to start this article with an Ah-nold reference.
Okay, it’s a bit of a stretch I know, but bear with me. Every year in fantasy football guys come out of the woodwork to become regular starters, and even become studs who can carry a team to a fantasy championship. Many times, these guys are completely off of anyone’s radar. Often times, they are forgotten veterans, or overlooked young players who never got a chance to succeed for one reason or another.
Last year, after Roy Williams suffered an injury, a 2006 undrafted free agent received his first career start on October 11, 2009. Ten catches, 250 yards, and two touchdowns later.... well, I think we all know who Miles Austin is now. He went on to be the leading receiver in the league from that point on.
If Roy Williams never sits out due to injury, does that explosion ever happen? There are some, such as my colleague Matt Peek, who have been high on him for years now, reciting how he was a Bill Parcells protégé and how it was only a matter of time before he had his chance. However, his rise was still sudden and explosive (no pun intended), and clearly a collateral effect of the Williams injury.
He wasn’t alone either.
One of my favorite sleeper picks going into this year was given his opportunity when injuries and ineffectiveness struck those in front of him. Justin Forsett was sitting third on the depth chart to begin last season. Julius Jones and Edgerrin James were both listed on the depth chart ahead of him. By season’s end, Jones was ineffective, James was released, and Forsett was powering fantasy teams into the playoffs!
This year, it appeared Pete Carroll’s arrival and subsequent signing of LenDale White was going to put Forsett behind the eight ball once again. Carroll wised up and released White, effectively giving the third-year player out of Cal the starting job. He does have competition coming from Leon Washington, whose recovering from a multi-fractured leg last year, but should be assured his share of touches regardless, and will be a goldmine if Washington’s leg doesn’t hold up. While this collateral effect happened early on, and will be noticed by many before their fantasy drafts, there are many that will occur sudden and late, and you need to be ready for them if you’re going to be the proud owner of the next diamond in the rough.
There are a handful of guys I am looking at right now, who are either in the position to explode, or may soon be in the position to do so... IF certain events unfold.
One guy you should be watching closely is Chargers wide receiver Legedu Naanee. The guy is a physical specimen, but it goes beyond that. He rarely drops a ball, and has all the tools to be a deep threat if the opportunity continues to present itself. This is all the collateral effect of Vincent Jackson and his contract holdout. Barring a miracle, Jackson won’t be playing for the Chargers until mid-October, and that’s being optimistic, with his suspension on top of his holdout. This is plenty of time for Naanee to make an impression. He already has good chemistry with Phillip Rivers, catching 25 of 29 passes thrown his way last season, and appears ready to seize the moment right now. While everyone is hyping Malcom Floyd as the beneficiary of Jackson’s holdout, don’t forget about him, and don’t hesitate to grab in the later rounds of your draft.
In Baltimore, all the Superbowl expectations are being tempered by the rash of injuries hitting the secondary line of their defense. As a result, speculation abounds that the team is shopping Willis McGahee and Mark Clayton, among others, to find a starting cornerback. Denver is a possible suitor, since a veteran running back and/or receiver is surely on their wish list. So who would a trade like this benefit the most?
Two seasons ago, LeRon McClain burst onto the season as a fullback who received about an equal split at the running back position. It resulted in 902 rushing yards to go along with ten touchdowns, and a Pro-bowl berth. Last season, he was stuck in neutral as Ray Rice had a coming-out party, and McGahee stole the second show. There’s been a clamoring for McClain to get more carries this year from fans and local pundits alike. They very well may get their wish if a trade happens. Keeps tabs on this situation throughout the rest of summer and regular season, and be ready to draft or pick up accordingly. They want Rice healthy, so a McGahee departure opens the door for another fantasy outburst by McClain.
Another backfield hoping to see some improvement this season was that of the Houston Texans. They suffered a blow in their first preseason game as rookie running back Ben Tate went down with a serious ankle injury. Suddenly another undrafted free agent from 2009, Arian Foster, is back in the starting role, which he occupied for the final two games last season. Foster’s main challenger is now Steve Slaton, who showed he still can’t be trusted near the goal line with a fumble inside the five against the Cardinals in the same preseason opener. Foster is an extremely powerful runner whose major flaw is his ball security. If he fixes that, and with a dynamic offense around him, I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up top ten numbers.
There is another side to it as well.
In Arizona, many feel Larry Fitzgerald has benefited from the presence of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. While I still feel Fitz will be a top 5 wide receiver this season, I don’t feel he’s a first round pick anymore. The collateral effect of losing those two players around him could take a toll on his effectiveness. While Steve Breaston and Early Doucet were impressive at times last season, can they be consistent? Can Matt Leinart or Derreck Anderson step up and continue what Warner started? The collateral effects may not be felt until we see it play out for a few weeks. Until then, it’s a lot of risk versus reward.
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have both shown they can put up some numbers when given the chance, but are also always an injury risk. If either or both guys go down, Danny Ware and Andre Brown are guys to watch in New York. The Giants have weapons outside, but after a career high in pass attempts for Eli Manning last season, expect the Giants to run more often, regardless of who’s in the backfield.
Those are a few situations I’m watching this summer, but there are many others. The key to being successful in your fantasy draft, is to pay attention EVERY DAY to what’s happening in camps and preseason games. You have to watch more than just your favorite team play. Visit other cities’ newspapers online and you’ll be amazed at what information you can find.
Collateral damage occurs every day, and it might not even be obvious at first. If a big name gets traded to Team A, that’s where the focus will be. Meanwhile, the sleepers lie on Team B, in that collateral black hole where diamonds emerge from the rough and are finally given a chance to showcase their skills.
Here are a few other players who, while well known, are still in foggy situations, and where their value lies has yet to be determined:
- In Buffalo, injuries to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch have CJ Spiller’s value topping off. I’d probably let him pass me by, but even with that atrocious offensive line, he could be a solid pickup after round five.
- Julian Edelman should expand upon his impressive rookie season, with or without Wes Welker in the mix. He’s definitely a guy to watch and grab in later rounds of your draft.
- Montario Hardesty in Cleveland could be a collateral effect of the front office change. Holmgren and company will want to go with their guy (they drafted him in the 2nd round) over Jerome Harrison, and he hasn’t disappointed yet. An easrly pre-season injury has Harrison in front right now, but things change fast in the NFL, so keep tabs.
- Joe Flacco’s numbers could be effected the same way McClain’s might be. The Ravens secondary problems could lead to quite a few high-scoring games, only adding to his potential given his new arsenal of weapons. I’d have no problem waiting on him come draft day if I don’t get one of the top guys.
I’ll save a few observations as well, since this is the first article of the year I’ve written. You’ll just have to keep coming back for more!
On another note, just as collateral damage happens with the players you are going after in your fantasy draft, they also happen WITHIN your fantasy draft.
Be ready to roll with the punches when some idiot wearing a Giants jersey shouts out Eli Manning’s name in the first round. Okay, that may be a bit extreme (though not unheard of) but reaches happen in every draft, and if you’ve got your tunnel vision goggles on as to who your next pick will be based on who you expect to be there, you may miss an opportunity to grab a value pick much later than should reasonably be allowed.
This goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway because it’s that important: Pay attention during your draft when it’s not your pick! The collateral effects of a tight end going in the second round could reap huge rewards if you’re ready for it.
Until your Draft Day arrives though, be diligent in your research, and know what moves are going down, and how they can affect guys on and off your radar. The benefit of knowing collateral effects across the league could and most likely will be the difference between winning your fantasy league, and missing the playoffs.
Just ask owners of Miles Austin last year.
And to quote Ah-nold again, “I’ll be back.”
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