ARTICLES

“So, you’ve drafted a pile of shit…” by PBitters

2011-04-25T13:26:00.000-07:00

Youput in a decent amount of research. Or, maybe you’re like me, and you put in 15 minutes on a website priorto your draft given that you were invited into your 2nd league 20minutes before the draft because some dude’s brother-in-law backed out due tofamilial reasons. (read: his wifeput the kibosh)

Regardlessof the pre-come, you’re stuck with the out-come. If you’re like me, you’re a decent student of baseball andcertainly are a strong enough fantasy player that you should be able to make achAmpion out of a chUmpion. Butnot even the greatest Generals could overcome certain odds. Even Custer realized how ill-preparedhe was as he was choking on feathers. There’s just time in which you have to realize that no matter theresearch and effort you put into this year’s draft…you’ve ended up with acomplete pile of shit.

You’verecognized the odor coming from you computer is that of your fantasy team. Your second round pick of Josh Hamiltonfollowed up by your pick of Joe Mauer is more and more feeling like thatburrito from Chipotle you dominated last night, and now it’s made it’s waythrough your lower intestine and is resembling your fantasy season more andmore. Grab the triple-ply anda plunger baby, because this could get ugly.

Butwait…there’s hope. “Give up shouldnot you” as Yoda once said.*

Justbecause your team has underperformed thus far this year does not mean that youshould write off the year. Don’tgive up hope young Jedi. There isstill time. One need only dig alittle and find those couple guys who will help you start to make you’re wayoutta the basement. Now listen,we’re not talking about grabbing a guy who will take you fromworst-to-first. You’d need to haveDisney in your pedigree for that story to come true.

You’vegot no Angels in your Outfield, so let’s take a quick look at some guys whocould help bring you out of the doldrums**:

Ryan Roberts, OF, ARI – This is a 30 year-old guy with acouple years ML experience and knows the game. He is playing well early and picking up games at 3B, meaninghis corner qualification may not be far away in your league. He’s hitting well above .300 with 4taters and 11 RBI this year so he’s certainly showing he can swing the bat. He’s certainly the gamble you need toconsider. I’d think of dropping:Angel Pagan, Jason Bay, Austin Jackson.
Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – This Dirtbag outta Long BeachState is coming up pretty strong. 15 RBI through 18 games is pretty strong for a 2B considering the depthat the position. Early potentialROY performance (but the season is young, let’s not get carried away yet)
Bartolo Colon, SP, NYY – Yes, his listed waitmight be off by a good 100 lbs, but the guy still can throw a baseball. And he’s pitching for the New YorkYankees. Last I heard, they arepretty good. He’ll get wins. He’llget 1.25 K per inning. He’ll havea 1.35 whip. Not great, but ifyou’re in dead last…he’s better than what you’ve got.
Matt Lindstrom, RP, COL – Odds are that ifyou’re in dead last, you need saves. This proven save hawk already has 2 this year. He’s a decent pitcher who’s been in the closer rolepreviously, so if things go awry in Colorado, he may get a look. Better if you have him on your rosternow before they schmoes above you get him.

Well, that’s about all I can offer at this point. If these guys aren’t your magicformula, then you may need to take a closer look at your own personalsituation. Regardless though, youshould not give up hope. You’ve paidin a bit of cash to be a part, so why phone it in the first few weeks? Your wife didn’t, so why should you?

As always, that’s the Bitters truth:

PBitters

*Yoda neversaid that. But it sorta soundslike he should’ve, right?

**Recommendations based on a 12-team league, 22-man roster

Digging for Diamonds by Jeffrey Stoltzfus

2010-12-14T17:07:00.001-08:00

So your fantasy seasondidn’t go as planned. Your lineup took more sacks than Brett Favre andunderstandably you’re upset. It’s been a tumultuous season. Up is down. Left isright. Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!

But don’t just sit theresharpening your punji sticks and mumbling to yourself in an alcohol inducedhaze because you didn’t make the playoffs. Now is not the time to surrender toindifference. This is the time to start scouting for next year. Now is the timeto make mental notes, or ink them in the blood of your enemies in yourflesh-bound manifesto. Whatever your preference.

Every year there’s goingto be some flashy new rookie you’re going to be tempted to draft but rookiesare risky. That’s why they’re so sexy. Dez Bryant, Ryan Matthews, and JahvidBest were all poised to have a phenomenal season but none of them really brokeout and each one was sidelined with injury. A better use of your draft pickswould have been Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, and Matt Cassel. None of them hadthe shiny new toy appeal that the rookies did and most were overlooked indrafts; but each one of them had a limited amount of on-the-field NFLexperience, and each one shined. This is the time of year when coaches take achance on somebody new. When injury and opportunity allow some undrafted secondyear man to show flashes of what can do, and quite possibly earn a starter’srole the following season.

If you were watching thefinal two games of last season you would have had Arian Foster on your radar.Or a few years ago, before Michael Turner left San Diego you could have watchedhim chew up garbage time late in the season. Miles Austin was in the leaguefour years before he suddenly became a number one wide receiver. My point beingthat these guys are out there right now. You just don’t see them yet.

Plunk your ass down infront of that high-def window into awesomeness with your favorite cookie and doyour homework. Somebody is going to start showing their talent. All you have todo is take notice. Then, next year, watch the preseason, watch the talent onthe roster, and look for opportunity. When you’re deep in your draft and theobvious starters are gone you’re going to be the one who reaps the benefits.And won’t you feel smug as you cha-cha into the playoffs on the broken dreamsof your rivals. How sweet it is.

2010: A Year of Injuries and Waiver Claims by Jeremy Dayton

2010-10-21T15:16:00.000-07:00

Wow. For those that hold the belief that fantasy football is just as much about luck, as it is solid drafting, waiver wire scouting, and starting lineup decisions, this is your year. In the league that I commission, I had what I thought was a power house after the draft. And then injuries struck. Again. Again. And again…

My week one starting lineup consisted of Ryan Mathews, Pierre Thomas, DeAngelo Williams, Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, Antonio Gates, and Kevin Kolb. My bench also included Ben Roethlisberger and Darren Mcfadden.

It all started with Kevin Kolb going down, and the Michael Vick explosion. My week 5 insurance policy of Ben Roethlisberger never got a chance to be cashed. Ryan Mathews then rolled his ankle. Then Andre Johnson. I then traded away Big Ben and McFadden for Aaron Rodgers, but even injuries happening AROUND Rodgers are affecting his numbers. I thought I was still in fine position after a 2-1 start. Then I went on to lose the past 3 weeks, most brutally 2 weeks ago.

When I got blocked in my waiver claim of Michael Vick after Kolb went down, I did stake claim to Mark Clayton. He was a godsend filling in for my injured running backs at flex, especially being that this is a PPR league. Of course, injury struck him too. Two weeks ago Clayton went down early- netting me 1 point. What I thought was a great move in picking up Rodgers, ending up haunting me, as his overtime interception versus the Redskins, and subsequent two point deduction, handed me a 1 point loss. Not that I regret the move, but the way it turned out was/is surely regrettable. Clayton’s injury was the real killer though.

Follow that loss up with the continued absence of Pierre Thomas, who suffered an ankle injury several weeks ago, forcing me into starting Willis McGahee the week he puts up a donut, and things are not going so well for my all-star roster. Gates injury, plus that donut, led me to another tough defeat this past weekend. For my own sake, I’m glad the NFL is cracking down on the hard hits some of my offensive studs are taking. At 2-4, I need some help. This leads me to what the season is becoming, the year of the Waiver Wire.

I’m sure I’m not alone. Many of you out there are facing injuries, some more than others. There is a bright spot that you can gleam from this. Next Man Up. The Waiver Wire. This is where you can try to find the diamonds in the rough that will step up, in the absence of so many injured stars. So, who are the guys you should target? I’ll start with the guys suddenly on my roster, whom will be starting on my team this week. (The first two anyway).

Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks. The USC product has been given new life in Seattle, and with the departure of Deion Grant, stepped up in a big way this past week. He’s a huge target for Matt Hasselbeck, and I expect him to continue looking for the former 1st round pick as the season goes on. I can only hope he duplicates last week’s performance, this week! Next up…

Denario Alexander, WR, Rams. The former Missouri Tiger has the makings of a star, and that might pertain to the big screen as well. The guy has come back from THREE ACL tears and a fractured wrist. Now finally healthy, and after being passed over by everyone in the draft, he actually has a chance to show the promise he displayed in college. With good size, solid hands, surprising post surgery speed, and an offense that figures to be passing a lot the rest of the way, he’s a guy to pick up now. He came up big last week, and I expect him to only get better. This kid has the makings of a Hollywood screenplay if he can stay on the field this year. Look for Bradford to keep looking the rookie’s way, and now is the time to grab him.

Deion Branch, WR, Patriots. Not exactly a surprise, but has to be mentioned. The chemistry between he and Tom Brady against a tough Ravens defense was obvious. He stepped right in and had the type of game the Seahawks expected of him when they traded for him four years ago. Especially in PPR leagues, this is a guy with a lot of value right now, even in an offense that spreads the ball. Grab him if he’s still around!

Tony Moeaki, TE, Chiefs. Okay, now this is a guy whose had a lot of buzz, and looks a lot like a younger Tony Gonzalez. However, he’s still available in almost eighty percent of ESPN leagues. If you need help at tight end, he’s a guy to pick up now, especially if you’re a Gates owner (like me)!

With injuries popping up literally out of nowhere, guys who yesterday weren’t worth mentioning, today become fantasy relevant.

Today it was announced that not only is Dallas Clark lost for a few weeks, if not more, but also that wide receiver Austin Collie will be lost for a few weeks, after undergoing hand surgery. Suddenly Blair White looks like a solid guy to have. Heck, anyone running patterns in Indianapolis is worth starting in a pinch. Obviously Pierre Garcon’s stock took a major climb with that news as well. If you can get your hands on any of them, grab away… fast!

A few other guys worth adding, although some are probably already snatched up…

Robert Meachem, WR, Saints – Finally stepping up in a potent offense that loves to pass the ball

Danny Woodhead, RB/WR, Patriots – The little man that could is surprising everyone, and I don’t see why he can’t continue to put up numbers good enough to be a fill-in when needed. His position flexibility is the kicker.

James Starks, RB, Packers – Brandon Jackson is running out of time. Starks will get his chance.

Deon Butler, WR, Seahawks – Williams can’t be the only guy catching passes, and his first game replacing the other Deion would’ve gotten more attention, were it not for his teammate Williams.

Chris Ivory, RB, Saints – You probably heard he ran thru the Tampa defense with ease, and he’s probably already on a roster, but I had to mention him anyway. He’ll have at least one more week to strut his stuff.

Kenny Britt, WR, Titans – A touchdown catch in 4 straight weeks?? How is he not getting more respect?

The list could go on, and I’m sure it will only grow in the coming weeks. Guys are going down with injuries at a record pace this season, and I’m sure many fantasy dreams are being crushed in the process. As each and every NFL team must do though, you’ve got to persevere. When a starter goes down, do some scouting, (or come here for advice), and pick up a replacement.

Bad luck can be a difference in a winning and losing season, but playing the waiver wire properly can offset those misfortunes if you’re diligent. So make your waiver claims, set your starting lineups, hope that you’re injured stars heal fast, and cross your fingers that the injury bug will go away! Or, at the very least, bite somebody else’s team!

Then, sit back, relax, and enjoy some football…

State of the Eagles by Jeffrey Stoltzfus

2010-10-07T19:20:00.000-07:00

Being a Philadelphia Eagles fan is tough. First off, everybody hates you. Yeah we threw
snow balls at Santa, and batteries at J.D. Drew, but we also cheered for Donvan McNabb
when he returned to as a Redskin (at least until the game started). We have a lot of
love and a lot of hate. It’s an emotional town. It’s a city that craves a win. The Phillies
winning the World Series was great but it wouldn’t equal the Eagles winning a Super-
Bowl. And while we had mixed feelings when Michael Vick came to town, is there any
doubt we love/need him now?

Fact: With Michael Vick playing a full game the Eagles are 2-0
Fact: With Kevin Kolb as QB the Eagles are 0-2

To be fair Kolb hasn’t played a complete game in 2010. It’s hard to properly critique
Kolb until he’s played at least two complete games. And no, last year does not count.
Those two 300+ yard games look good on paper but I actually watched those games. He
wasn’t that impressive. Nonetheless the preseason had nearly every NFL analyst saying
how he was going to be the next Aaron Rogers, the next Tom Brady. Andy Reid and
owner Jeffery Lurie obviously thought so too. They traded the most prolific passer in
franchise history to their division rival and gave Kolb a new contract. The writing was
on the wall – Kevin Kolb is the future of this team. Scrawled just below that in fine print
was: Just in case he’s not, Vick is our backup plan.

What I saw last week was not a good start. Kolb became a check down Charlie dumping
the ball off to McCoy, full back Owen Schmitt, and occasionally Celek. He didn’t even
look for DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin. Let me tell you about another QB who kept
checking down and rendered his WR’s useless, his name is Trent Edwards. Ask a Bills
fan how that turned out.

A wide receiver doesn’t necessarily need to be open for you to make a play. Flashback
to Monday night September 27th in the year of our lord 2010, Bears vs Packers. A double
chinned Jay Cutler tossed the ball to a blanketed WR and drew a pass interference call
that put them in range for the game winning field goal. If Cutler didn’t make that toss the
game could have gone ended a lot differently.

Here’s what I know – Fantasy Football-wise

When Vick is healthy he’s a must start each and every week. No question. When Vick
plays the value goes up on DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The value goes down on
TE Brent Celek. For some reason he just doesn’t look to him that much. If McCoy takes
a hit it’s minimal. Vick is his own running game. It’s both a detriment to McCoy because
he takes yardage from him, and a blessing because he keeps drives alive and potentially
sets up goal line work for McCoy.

When Kolb starts I wouldn’t let him do more than ride my bench. He’s just way to risky
right now. He has a lot to prove and little time to do it. When Kolb plays the value goes
up on Celek and McCoy because they get all those check downs. Jason Avant gets a
boost too. Not enough for regular fantasy relevance but he’ll get a ball or two. Maclin
takes a huge hit. Let’s face it if you’re going to force the ball to anyone it’s going to be
Jackson. But Jackson’s numbers drop so much you almost question starting him.

With McCoy being injured a lot of people will roll the dice on Mike Bell this week. I
don’t see much value there unless you’re really hurting for a flex play RB. The Eagles are
a throw first team no matter who is at QB. That’s not going to change. I like Mike Bell.
I was glad the Eagles got him. But I don’t see much breakout ability for him. He’s not
going to find much space on the run with that weak offensive line. (Jason Peters you’re
overrated and over paid). Most of McCoy’s yards come from spinning and juking after a
five yard catch. Bell doesn’t have the same skill set. He might get a goal line carry but I’d
be surprised. The Eagles have even been known to use RB Eldra Buckley from time to
time. But any fantasy relevance there is purely fantasy. Also consider that McCoy played
most of last week’s game after getting the injury. He’s tough. He’ll be back in the mix
very soon.

The Defense is underperforming, as is the Special Teams. I can’t quite explain this
as I like the talent on the roster but they’re inconsistent. Defensive Coordinator Sean
McDermott talked about making changes this week; trying to plug the holes that
everyone and their momma have been running through. We’ll see if the adjustments
make a difference. Right now I’d play any starting RB against the Eagles defense with
confidence.

I don’t see any young unknowns stepping up to become a fantasy sleeper on the
Philadelphia Eagles any time soon. Riley Cooper looked promising but how much would
you consider a rookie WR that fumbled an onside kick, left the game with a concussion,
and didn’t practice all week. He’s also fourth on the depth chart. Seek your entertainment
elsewhere.

UPS & DOWNS by Jeffrey Stoltzfus

2010-10-01T20:39:00.000-07:00

Once is an occurrence, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. Now that the dust
has settled on week 3, we can finally take a look around and see what we’ve learned from the
first 3 weeks of football.
Todd Haley, you sir are no Andy Reid.
I have mixed feelings about the Kevin Kolb era being delayed in Philly, but Andy Reid made
the smart move by sticking with the resurgent Michael Vick. Vick has thrown for 750 yards and 6
touchdowns, with ZERO interceptions. He’s even rushed for over 170 yards. Reid stuck with the
player who gives him the best chance to win now. So what’s my beef with Haley? Oh, I think
owners of Jamaal Charles have some idea. Thomas freaking Jones? Are you kidding me?
Haley, for some reason, refuses to give Charles the bulk of the work load. Jones has had more
touches in every game thus far: 52 compared to Charles’s 34. And yet Charles has had more
yards per carry and per game. What is the reason for this? Does Haley have Jones on his
fantasy team or something? It’s not like Charles’s big play potential is a secret after last season.
But Charles owners are going to have to endure because the Chiefs are now 3-0. Until they
start losing, Haley might never take the handcuffs off his most valuable offensive weapon and
Charles’s weekly contribution to your roster will remain a big question mark.
Mark Sanchez. I believe now.
In week 1, Sanchez looked exactly like what I thought he was: mediocre and over hyped. While
the media blew smoke up his butt I watched him implode on the battlefield, as the Ravens
tossed his salad. In week 2, I watched him earn respectable numbers versus the Patriots. More
smoke up Sanchez’s butt. But I saw the open receivers he failed to notice as he forced the ball
to Braylon Edwards for a lucky touchdown. And let’s be honest, the New England secondary
ain’t that great. I still did not believe. I foresaw bad things in week 3 as he faced what appeared
to be a solid Miami defense. Instead of humiliation, Sanchez threw for a second straight week of
over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. And more importantly, he has yet to be intercepted. While
I don’t plan on adding to the Sanchez hype, it’s hard to turn a blind eye to those numbers. He
appears to be coming into his own. At least for now, I believe.

Arian Foster is the real deal.
I don’t know where the Steve Slaton from 2 years ago went, but he’s not coming back any time
soon. In the mean time, everyone behold the awesome ability of Arian Foster - the one-cut
wonder. We saw it in preseason. We damn sure saw it in week one. Not only does he have
speed, he has the power to finish off big runs by fighting for extra yardage. He even catches passes into the flat pretty well. He is a must play, week in and week out.

The Steelers don’t need Ben Roethlisberger.
Steelers defense is back! 5 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, and one touchdown. Of course
they haven’t really played anyone good yet. But look at the their upcoming schedule: Baltimore, Cleveland, Miami. It will be week 8 before they face an offense of any particular significance.
Until then, Steelers defense rules.

Cleveland hates Jerome Harrison.
Maybe you were optimistic about Jerome after the way he finished last year. It certainly seemed
like the job was his. Then Cleveland goes out and drafts Montario Hardesty. The rookie looks
good. Jerome’s stock dips. Hardesty is injured. Jerome’s stock goes back up. Right? I mean
the guy behind him is Peyton Hillis. It’s not like Hillis is going to get the bulk of the carries and
the goal line looks. Right? Jerome at this point look like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football
only to have Lucy rip out from under him at the last second. And what’s worse, is that after a few
costly fumbles, he doesn’t even deserve the start anymore.
Okay, so that all seemed pretty obvious. You’re looking for some insight into the coming
week. I got that too.

Looking for a running back? Pickens might be slim in week 4. Undoubtedly everyone has
already jumped on the Hillis, Jackson, Snelling, and Tolbert bandwagons. Not to fear. Here’s
three more worth a look. They might not be studs, but with injuries abound you never know when
someone might find a way to be relevent.

Laurence Maroney might not be spectacular, but neither is Correll Buckhalter, and if Kno-play
Moreno misses another game somebody’s going to get opportunities. Maroney has been on the
mend and while he’ll certainly split time with Buckhalter, Maroney can still pound it. Both looked
bad against Indy, but Maroney saw more touches, which leaves me with temporary optimism.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Kevin Faulk is on IR, Fred Taylor is questionable, and that only leaves him and Sammy Morris. Green-Ellis has failed us before but he did get the bulk of the carries after Taylor’s week 3 toe injury. He’d be my pick.

Chris Ivory has been recuperating from a knee injury. With Reggie Bush out for a few weeks,
Ivory was worked in the rotation versus Atlanta. That didn’t go so well. But Ivory is going to have
more opportunities to spell Pierre Thomas in the coming weeks - especially near the goal line.
His value is low right now, but could sky rocket at any point.

Cuff Or Be Cuffed

2010-09-23T23:36:00.000-07:00

Ever been in the back seat of a police car in Tijuana, Mexico wearing handcuffs? Well neither have I. My friend, who will remain nameless at this time, has though. Not a good feeling. The thoughts running through my friend's head went something like this--“I knew I probably shoulda not done that, but at the time it seemed like a good idea…”

Well, that feeling is being echoed by many fantasy footballers over the country right now, as their stud running backs, and “sleeper” quarterbacks, are going down at an alarming rate.

Week One saw Ryan Grant go down. Lucky owners sitting in the pole position of the weekly waiver wire were gifted Brandon Jackson, who may or may not turn out to be a solid player. Regardless, Grant owners would be much happier owning him, than not. Kevin Kolb, who I wrote about last week, also went down, and Michael Vick has quickly stepped in and owned the starting job in Philadelphia. I'm not saying Vick should have been a handcuff necessarily, as that's a tough call with quarterbacks, but with Kolb being unproven going into this year, it wouldn't have been the worst idea. (Editor's note - I, myself, DID NOT draft Vick, even though I own Kevin Kolb in multiple leagues, and I'm hurting).

Week two, and guys like Michael Turner and Ryan Mathews went down with injuries. Neither returned to their respective games, but both watched from the sidelines as their backups stepped up in a big way. Jason Snelling ran for over 125 yards and two touchdowns in relief of Turner. Mike Tolbert, normally a fullback, showed he might be in the running for this year's version of LaRon McClain. The bruising runner pummeled defenders as he rushed for 80 plus yards and two scores.

Both of these backs need to be owned, if they are not already. Right now, there are two concerned owners in your league (of Turner and Mathews), hoping they can sneak these guys on to their squad. The ones who intelligently handcuffed these backups already can sit back and breathe easy, other than the usual gametime decision stuff they'll mostly likely have to deal with this Sunday. For those that didn't handcuff during the draft or before this past weekend, good luck. Hopefully the reason you didn't handcuff them, is because you loaded your team with top quality reserve players, and you can deal with injuries. Either way, I think the first two weeks has shown us the importance of handcuffing top players.

Back to my friend in the police car. A quick trip across the border by two of our other friends, and $300 later from an ATM machine, and my friend was uncuffed and allowed to go. Playing in a money league can bring very similar parallels. For those of you that refuse to learn the value of handcuffing in fantasy football, you just might find yourself feeling like my friend did that night in Tijuana, Mexico. Forehead sweating, windows steaming, mind racing, hoping that silly thing you just did or didn't do, doesn't cost you a lot of cash!

But, most likely, it probably will.

Caught in a Kolb Web - Jeremy Dayton

2010-09-14T12:30:00.000-07:00

So you waited on a quarterback during your draft. You figured you’d stack your lineup with stud running backs and wide receivers, and pick up an unproven or questionable quarterback in the middle to late rounds. A lot of you ended up with guys like Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco, and Brett Favre.

Those that REALLY waited may be saddled with the likes of a Matthew Stafford or Donovan McNabb. You expected your quarterback to be the Trent Dilfer of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Provide a few points, but just don’t LOSE the game.

Now, after a week one that saw very little solid quarterback play from anyone outside the top seven, (other than Jay Cutler), you’re probably feeling a bit anxious. (Especially if your horses were guys like Andre or Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, Michael Turner… the list goes on.)

But, all is not lost.

Take a deep breath. Relax.

Just like Rex Ryan, tell yourself “it’s only week one, and we’ll get better.”

The beauty of fantasy football is we have much more control than a head coach does. Mark Sanchez (I didn’t mention him above, because if you’re counting on him as a starter, you must’ve been on auto-draft, and might as well forfeit. No, I take that back. No I don’t. Yes I do. This article still applies to you.), will never win you games, but his ability to “not lose” them in the NFL, doesn’t apply to fantasy.

Maybe when Santonio Holmes' suspension is up, so will his prospects go, but until then, he should be on zero rosters. So Rex will stick with the USC Golden boy and expect to win with solid running and defense. Okay, I digress... what’s this got to do with your floundering quarterback situation?

Maybe not much, but to the point:

If you’re an owner of Kevin Kolb, who suffered a concussion against the Packers and is questionable for this week against the Lions, and you don’t have a reliable backup on your roster, than you’re gonna have to make some decisions this week. First and foremost, stake a waiver claim on Michael Vick. Regardless of your league’s scoring system, Vick look rejuvenated and if he’s got the keys to the Philly offense, you should try and do as Reid does, hand them over to the dog lover, ESPECIALLY against the Lions.

It seems like a strong possibility that Kolb won’t be playing this week, and even if he does, it’ll be limited. So if you’re team is solid everywhere else, hold steady and see what Vick gives you. Now, if some shrewd owner decides to block you on your claim, or perhaps a team also with a need at quarterback with waiver priority steals him, there just may be some other value on the waiver wire.

Here’s a few quick answers that may be available on your waiver wire:

Matt Hasselbeck. He’s been completely overlooked, and had a solid week one performance, throwing for 170 yards and two touchdowns, while also running for one. He may have thrown more if his team hadn’t taken such a commanding lead in the second half. Denver allowed three touchdown passes through the air to the Jacksonville Jaguars, so Hasselbeck could easily match his week one numbers come Sunday.

Speaking of the Jaguars…

David Garrard is also a solid pickup as a week two replacement. Ironically, he also threw for 170 yards, but added three touchdowns via the pass. A matchup at San Diego, in what could be a high scoring contest, should provide plenty of chances for Garrard to put up another solid game. Garrard’s counterpart this past week, Kyle Orton, also looks like he may have a bit of value.

Orton looked pretty solid on Sunday, throwing for just under 300 yards and a score, and could definitely provide some stability at the quarterback position for your fantasy team until an ultimate decision is made on Kolb.

Lastly, don’t be scared to pick up Matt Cassel this week, as he faces off against the Cleveland Browns.

Last year, he torched the Browns for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. With guys like Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster showing big play ability, any quick dumpoff pass could end up crossing the goalline. So if you're really desperate and the other guys are gone, he could be a solid week two play.

Tough matchups and injuries happen all the time. You have to realize that and not do anything too reactionary after a tough game. The same goes for an injury, until you know the true extent of it.

Kolb could end up playing this week, or he could be out a month. We just don’t know yet. Patience, as always, is key.

Flacco, Favre, McNabb and eventually, maybe even Stafford, will have their days to shine. Some will more than others, but they all will win you some games. So, if you were a proud drafter of Kevin Kolb this season, don’t sweat it. Try to get Vick or grab a guy off waivers to fill your roster this week. However, if you see another team with multiple quarterbacks, don’t hesitate to try and trade.

If your team has enough depth, it’s always a good idea to make a pre-emptive move, so long as you’re not sacrificing too much. I’m not saying give up a stud running back for Matt Ryan, but maybe a third running back for a Jay Cutler owner, who wants to sell high. You can never have enough options, but you’ll never know unless you throw out the offers.

Doing it now, rather than waiting until you’re completely desperate, will help you salvage some value in the players you are willing to part ways with in a trade.

The reality is, you’re not going to win all of your games, and every one of your players isn’t going to perform every week. It’s only week one, so have faith in your draft.

Quarterbacks aren’t normally like wide receivers and running backs, where one or two studs show up out of nowhere each year. Keep your eyes open for trade opportunities, and be diligent on the waiver wire.

If you do, a little concussion to your ninth round starter shouldn’t be anything more than a speed bump on your way to the championship. I mean, you didn’t expect him to WIN the championship for you to begin with did you? That was the responsibility of your first eight picks. He was only supposed to pull a Dilfer.

Hot Tub Sleeper Picks Top 165 Player Rankings*

2010-08-30T21:17:00.000-07:00

Below you’ll find the top players ranked by us for the 2010 Fantasy Football Season. Sure, some choices might cause you to pause and scratch your head, but if you’re like us you’ll read and reread a dozen or so of these lists before your draft season begins.

Without further adieu, or with zero adieu since we’ve never had a player ranking before, we give you our idea of who is and isn’t worth crap this season. Good Luck!

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC

2. Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

3. Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

4. Ray Rice, RB, BAL

5. Andre Johnson, WR, HOU

6. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB

7. Michael Turner, RB, ATL

8. Frank Gore, RB, SF

9. Steven Jackson, RB, STL

10. Drew Brees, QB, NO

11. Randy Moss, WR, NE

12. Miles Austin, WR, DAL

13. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ

14. Reggie Wayne, WR, IND

15. Peyton Manning, QB, IND

16. Ryan Matthews, RB, SD

17. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR

18. Shonn Green, RB, NYJ

19. Cedric Benson, RB, CIN

20. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT

21. Ryan Grant, RB, GB

22. Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

23. Tom Brady, QB, NE

24. Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA

25. Greg Jennings, WR, GB

26. Roddy White, WR, ATL

27. Marques Colston, WR, NO

28. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO

29. Jamal Charles, RB, KC

30. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

31. Phillip Rivers, QB, SD

32. Beanie Wells, RB, ARZ

33. LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI

34. Tony Romo, QB, DAL

35. Matt Schaub, QB, HOU

36. Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA

37. Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN

38. Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL

39. Joseph Addai, RB, IND

40. Percy Harvin, WR, MIN

41. Steve Smith, WR, CAR

42. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF

43. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC

44. Arian Foster, RB, HOU

45. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG

46. Matt Forte, RB, CHI

47. Javid Best, RB, DET

48. Steve Smith, WR, NYG

49. Dallas Clark, TE, IND

50. Antonio Gates, TE, SD

51. Jason Whitten, TE, DAL

52. Jermichael Finley, TE, GB

53. Vernon Davis, TE, SF

54. Pierre Garcon, WR, IND

55. Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG

56. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF

57. Ricky Williams, RB, MIA

58. Felix Jones, RB, DAL

59. Reggie Bush, RB, NO

60. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

61. Brent Celek, TE, PHI

62. Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL

63. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG

64. Justin Forsett, RB, SEA

65. Devin Armashodu, WR, CHI

66. Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ

41. Steve Smith, WR, CAR

42. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF

43. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC

44. Arian Foster, RB, HOU

45. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG

46. Matt Forte, RB, CHI

47. Javid Best, RB, DET

48. Steve Smith, WR, NYG

49. Dallas Clark, TE, IND

50. Antonio Gates, TE, SD

51. Jason Whitten, TE, DAL

52. Jermichael Finley, TE, GB

53. Vernon Davis, TE, SF

54. Pierre Garcon, WR, IND

55. Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG

56. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF

57. Ricky Williams, RB, MIA

58. Felix Jones, RB, DAL

59. Reggie Bush, RB, NO

60. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

61. Brent Celek, TE, PHI

62. Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL

63. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG

64. Justin Forsett, RB, SEA

65. Devin Armashodu, WR, CHI

66. Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ

67. Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE

68. Steve Breaston, WR, ARZ

69. Donald Driver, WR, GB

70. Hines Ward, WR, PIT

71. Terrell Owens, WR, CIN

72. Owen Daniels, TE, HOU

73. Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ

74. Robert Meachem, WR, NO

75. Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI

76. Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI

77. Kellen Winslow, TE, TB

78. Malcolm Floyd, WR, SD

79. Marion Barber, RB, DAL

80. Darren Sproles, RB, SD

81. Lee Evans, WR, BUF

82. Kenny Britt, WR, TEN

83. Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN

84. Jay Cutler, QB, CHI

85. Joe Flacco, QB, BAL

86. Clinton Portis, RB, WAS

87. Eli Manning, QB, NYG

88. Cadillac Williams, RB, TB

89. Mike Wallace, WR, PIT

90. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT

91. Brett Favre. QB, MIN

92. Donald Brown, RB, IND

93. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA

94. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL

95. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

96. Steve Slaton, RB, HOU

97. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL

98. Santana Moss, WR, WAS

99. Fred Jackson, RB, BUF

100. Chris Cooley, TE, WAS

101. Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE

102. Tim Hightower, RB, ARZ

103. Chaz Schillens, WR, OAK

104. Louis Murphy, WR, OAK

105. Johnny Knox, WR, CHI

106. Thomas Jones, RB, KC

107. LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ

108. Julian Edelman, WR, NE

109. Michael Bush, RB, OAK

110. JETS DEFENSE

111. Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN

112. Correll Buckhalter, RB, DEN

113. Chester Taylor, RB, CHI

114. Laurence Maroney, RB, NE

115. Derrick Mason, WR, BAL

116. Sidney Rice, WR, MIN

117. RAVENS DEFENSE

118. Mike Williams, WR, TB

119. Zach Miller, TE, OAK

120. Vince Young, QB, TEN

121. Chad Henne, QB, MIA

122. Josh Morgan, WR, SF

123. Vincent Jackson, WR, SD

124. Matthew Stafford, QB, DET

125. Willis McGahee, RB, BAL

126. Eddie Royal, WR, DEN

127. Greg Olsen, TE, CHI

128. COWBOYS DEFENSE

129. Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU

130. Austin Collie, WR, IND

131. Heath Miller, TE, PIT

132. Golden Tate, WR, SEA

133. Mario Manningham, WR, NYG

134. Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ

135. Leon Washington, RB, SEA

136. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR,CLE

137. Derrick Ward, RB, TB

138. John Carlson, TE, SEA

139. Kyle Orton, QB, DEN

140. EAGLES DEFENSE

141. Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ

142. Early Doucet, WR, ARI

143. VIKINGS DEFENSE

144. Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN

145. Tashard Choice, RB, DAL

146. Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN

147. 49ERS DEFENSE

148. Bernard Scott, RB, CIN

149. Kevin Boss, TE, NYG

150. STEELERS DEFENSE

151. Jonathon Dwyer, RB, PIT

152. PACKERS DEFENSE

153. Dexter McCluster, WR, KC

154. Chris Chambers, WR, KC

155. Carson Palmer, QB, Cin

156. Kevin Smith, RB, DET

157. Josh Cribbs, WR, CLE

159. Jason Campbell, QB, OAK

160. Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA

161. Josh Freeman, QB, TB

162. BENGALS DEFENSE

163. Jeremy Shockley, TE, NO

164. James Starks, RB, GB

165. Max Hall, QB, ARI

*Why 165? Why not!

COLLATERAL DAMAGE - Jeremy Dayton

2010-08-30T00:20:00.000-07:00

“Ru-un. Go! Get to the chopper!”

Classic Schwarzenegger line, (and one I love to quote… often), but not from the movie I’ll allude to in this article.

Nope, it was a little-remembered 2002 film called Collateral Damage. In typical Arnold fashion, he takes on an entire terrorist network and brings them down, one witty one-liner at a time. It’s the idea behind the premise that I’ll relate to fantasy football, however. “Collateral damage” is defined as the unintended or incidental damage outside of the intended outcome of an event. I’m going to twist that definition in my favor, and say that it’s more of a collateral effect, rather than damage, as it doesn’t have to be negative unintended effects. Besides, it allowed me to start this article with an Ah-nold reference.

Okay, it’s a bit of a stretch I know, but bear with me. Every year in fantasy football guys come out of the woodwork to become regular starters, and even become studs who can carry a team to a fantasy championship. Many times, these guys are completely off of anyone’s radar. Often times, they are forgotten veterans, or overlooked young players who never got a chance to succeed for one reason or another.

Last year, after Roy Williams suffered an injury, a 2006 undrafted free agent received his first career start on October 11, 2009. Ten catches, 250 yards, and two touchdowns later.... well, I think we all know who Miles Austin is now. He went on to be the leading receiver in the league from that point on.

If Roy Williams never sits out due to injury, does that explosion ever happen? There are some, such as my colleague Matt Peek, who have been high on him for years now, reciting how he was a Bill Parcells protégé and how it was only a matter of time before he had his chance. However, his rise was still sudden and explosive (no pun intended), and clearly a collateral effect of the Williams injury.

He wasn’t alone either.

One of my favorite sleeper picks going into this year was given his opportunity when injuries and ineffectiveness struck those in front of him. Justin Forsett was sitting third on the depth chart to begin last season. Julius Jones and Edgerrin James were both listed on the depth chart ahead of him. By season’s end, Jones was ineffective, James was released, and Forsett was powering fantasy teams into the playoffs!

This year, it appeared Pete Carroll’s arrival and subsequent signing of LenDale White was going to put Forsett behind the eight ball once again. Carroll wised up and released White, effectively giving the third-year player out of Cal the starting job. He does have competition coming from Leon Washington, whose recovering from a multi-fractured leg last year, but should be assured his share of touches regardless, and will be a goldmine if Washington’s leg doesn’t hold up. While this collateral effect happened early on, and will be noticed by many before their fantasy drafts, there are many that will occur sudden and late, and you need to be ready for them if you’re going to be the proud owner of the next diamond in the rough.

There are a handful of guys I am looking at right now, who are either in the position to explode, or may soon be in the position to do so... IF certain events unfold.

One guy you should be watching closely is Chargers wide receiver Legedu Naanee. The guy is a physical specimen, but it goes beyond that. He rarely drops a ball, and has all the tools to be a deep threat if the opportunity continues to present itself. This is all the collateral effect of Vincent Jackson and his contract holdout. Barring a miracle, Jackson won’t be playing for the Chargers until mid-October, and that’s being optimistic, with his suspension on top of his holdout. This is plenty of time for Naanee to make an impression. He already has good chemistry with Phillip Rivers, catching 25 of 29 passes thrown his way last season, and appears ready to seize the moment right now. While everyone is hyping Malcom Floyd as the beneficiary of Jackson’s holdout, don’t forget about him, and don’t hesitate to grab in the later rounds of your draft.

In Baltimore, all the Superbowl expectations are being tempered by the rash of injuries hitting the secondary line of their defense. As a result, speculation abounds that the team is shopping Willis McGahee and Mark Clayton, among others, to find a starting cornerback. Denver is a possible suitor, since a veteran running back and/or receiver is surely on their wish list. So who would a trade like this benefit the most?

Two seasons ago, LeRon McClain burst onto the season as a fullback who received about an equal split at the running back position. It resulted in 902 rushing yards to go along with ten touchdowns, and a Pro-bowl berth. Last season, he was stuck in neutral as Ray Rice had a coming-out party, and McGahee stole the second show. There’s been a clamoring for McClain to get more carries this year from fans and local pundits alike. They very well may get their wish if a trade happens. Keeps tabs on this situation throughout the rest of summer and regular season, and be ready to draft or pick up accordingly. They want Rice healthy, so a McGahee departure opens the door for another fantasy outburst by McClain.

Another backfield hoping to see some improvement this season was that of the Houston Texans. They suffered a blow in their first preseason game as rookie running back Ben Tate went down with a serious ankle injury. Suddenly another undrafted free agent from 2009, Arian Foster, is back in the starting role, which he occupied for the final two games last season. Foster’s main challenger is now Steve Slaton, who showed he still can’t be trusted near the goal line with a fumble inside the five against the Cardinals in the same preseason opener. Foster is an extremely powerful runner whose major flaw is his ball security. If he fixes that, and with a dynamic offense around him, I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up top ten numbers.

There is another side to it as well.

In Arizona, many feel Larry Fitzgerald has benefited from the presence of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. While I still feel Fitz will be a top 5 wide receiver this season, I don’t feel he’s a first round pick anymore. The collateral effect of losing those two players around him could take a toll on his effectiveness. While Steve Breaston and Early Doucet were impressive at times last season, can they be consistent? Can Matt Leinart or Derreck Anderson step up and continue what Warner started? The collateral effects may not be felt until we see it play out for a few weeks. Until then, it’s a lot of risk versus reward.

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have both shown they can put up some numbers when given the chance, but are also always an injury risk. If either or both guys go down, Danny Ware and Andre Brown are guys to watch in New York. The Giants have weapons outside, but after a career high in pass attempts for Eli Manning last season, expect the Giants to run more often, regardless of who’s in the backfield.
Those are a few situations I’m watching this summer, but there are many others. The key to being successful in your fantasy draft, is to pay attention EVERY DAY to what’s happening in camps and preseason games. You have to watch more than just your favorite team play. Visit other cities’ newspapers online and you’ll be amazed at what information you can find.

Collateral damage occurs every day, and it might not even be obvious at first. If a big name gets traded to Team A, that’s where the focus will be. Meanwhile, the sleepers lie on Team B, in that collateral black hole where diamonds emerge from the rough and are finally given a chance to showcase their skills.

Here are a few other players who, while well known, are still in foggy situations, and where their value lies has yet to be determined:

- In Buffalo, injuries to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch have CJ Spiller’s value topping off. I’d probably let him pass me by, but even with that atrocious offensive line, he could be a solid pickup after round five.
- Julian Edelman should expand upon his impressive rookie season, with or without Wes Welker in the mix. He’s definitely a guy to watch and grab in later rounds of your draft.
- Montario Hardesty in Cleveland could be a collateral effect of the front office change. Holmgren and company will want to go with their guy (they drafted him in the 2nd round) over Jerome Harrison, and he hasn’t disappointed yet. An easrly pre-season injury has Harrison in front right now, but things change fast in the NFL, so keep tabs.
- Joe Flacco’s numbers could be effected the same way McClain’s might be. The Ravens secondary problems could lead to quite a few high-scoring games, only adding to his potential given his new arsenal of weapons. I’d have no problem waiting on him come draft day if I don’t get one of the top guys.

I’ll save a few observations as well, since this is the first article of the year I’ve written. You’ll just have to keep coming back for more!

On another note, just as collateral damage happens with the players you are going after in your fantasy draft, they also happen WITHIN your fantasy draft.

Be ready to roll with the punches when some idiot wearing a Giants jersey shouts out Eli Manning’s name in the first round. Okay, that may be a bit extreme (though not unheard of) but reaches happen in every draft, and if you’ve got your tunnel vision goggles on as to who your next pick will be based on who you expect to be there, you may miss an opportunity to grab a value pick much later than should reasonably be allowed.

This goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway because it’s that important: Pay attention during your draft when it’s not your pick! The collateral effects of a tight end going in the second round could reap huge rewards if you’re ready for it.

Until your Draft Day arrives though, be diligent in your research, and know what moves are going down, and how they can affect guys on and off your radar. The benefit of knowing collateral effects across the league could and most likely will be the difference between winning your fantasy league, and missing the playoffs.
Just ask owners of Miles Austin last year.

And to quote Ah-nold again, “I’ll be back.”

Welcome to Season Two!

2010-08-12T23:08:00.001-07:00

Welcome to Hot Tub Sleeper Picks version 2.0!

We’ve thought long and hard about this and decided that you, our loyal and incredibly attractive readers, might actually want to know a little bit about us and why we’ve scoured all of Los Angeles for beautiful, football-fanatic women to sit in our hot tub to talk fantasy.... football.

It all starts with the realization that most talking heads in sports are fairly uninteresting and unattractive men.

When we were watching the NFL Network’s 2008 fantasy football preseason show none of us could stop staring at Rich Eisen’s hairline as it actually receded over the course of that hour-long show. Mix in the fact that they weren’t relaying a single bit of useful knowledge, as fantasy “insiders” or “experts” rarely do - and suddenly a pearl began to form.

After much discussion we settled on the hot tub, the beautiful girls that actually know football, and sleeper picks (because that’s what has won us a string of money leagues over the years).

So what is a sleeper pick?

Really? Come on, you’re kidding… If you don’t know this than Thank God you found this site.

Sleeper picks are the under-the-radar guys filling out every NFL roster. They are the guys that impress enough in preseason to beat out that stud who rushed for 1400 yards 5 years ago but still have to play special teams until your first round pick gets banged up.

They are the guys you’ll be fighting for waiver priority each week to grab. They are the guys that, unless you are blessed by Paul Brown’s ghost, you’ll need to win the money and the trophy in your fantasy football league. Stick with us… we’ll shine the light on ‘em for you.

Now, why watch us?

Well, we are good, damn good! Look back at last season and check out our track record. Seriously, Louis Murphy in week one? Yep!

We won’t always be right. But we’ll always be pretty and fun. That, and the willingness to admit just how wrong we were should be enough.

So, thank you for stopping by and reading… and, hopefully, watching. The 2010 season should be a blast. Good luck in kicking everyone in your league’s ass!

SEASON 2 Teaser

2010-06-26T16:39:00.000-07:00

It's about to get steamy!! More teasers are on their way as we get closer to the 2010 NFL season!

Don't forget to follow us on Twitter @hottubpicks and stay tuned for our brand-spankin' new website coming soon!